The outcome of the Trump – Zelensky meeting comes as no surprise for those who are familiar with the personalities of both leaders.
When Vladymir Zelensky walked into the Oval Office on Friday, February 28th, he did it with the same confidence he employed when meeting other world leaders. Dressed in his usual tracksuit, Zelensky didn’t quite understand that what he was about to walk into wasn’t a school PE session but a meeting with a leader well known for his use of realpolitik.
During the next 139 minutes, Zelensky showed how unprepared he was for the meeting and to what degree he decided to ignore the recommendations received in preparation for the talks. The issue of the Ukranian’s president naivety was also touched on in a CNN article published following the meeting. “I told him this morning, ‘Don’t take the bait. Don’t let the media or anyone else get you into an argument with President Trump. What he’s doing today is resetting the relationship,’” said Sen. Lindsey Graham to CNN. Graham was among a group of Republican and Democratic senators who met Zelensky before he came to the White House. French President Emmanuel Macron also offered his advice but his words fell on deaf ears.
Zelensky started on the wrong foot already during the first few minutes when, asked by a reporter why he wasn’t appropriately dressed for the meeting he replied “I will wear a costume after this war will finish, yes. Maybe something like yours, yes, maybe something better. I don’t know, we will see. Maybe something cheaper. Thank you.” The answer automatically implied how he saw the other people in the room (including the President and his deputy Vance): clowns wearing a costume. Not the right attitude when you are aiming at a refinancing package for your war. What happened next is well known and it is not the aim of this article to dig further into it.
The recording of the meeting is widely available on social media platforms and an accurate analysis can be found at https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/01/politics/inside-trump-zelensky-meeting/index.html
What we are interested in analyzing is how Trump’s negotiation strategy has already won him considerable successes and it is likely to bear fruit with Ukraine.
Reconnaissance by combat
The most naïve members of the media and public have seen the meeting as an ambush. In reality, for the first 40 minutes of their talks, Trump did not evince outward bitterness toward Zelensky, instead discussing the minerals deal they were planning to sign later in the day. When he found himself forced to expel Zelensky from the Oval Office, Trump ended up employing the principle of reconnaissance by combat. The concept behind a reconnaissance by combat is simple: launch a small attack to force the enemy to reveal their firing positions. In politics, reconnaissance by combat is used by laying on the table a series of conditions that will force the counterpart to act. The strategy can be used effectively in a number of scenarios, including breaking a diplomatic stalemate by finally convincing both Ukraine and Russia to sit down and discuss.
Reconnaissance by combat has already worked successfully for Trump. When Trump threatened Mexico with an increase of 25% of import tariffs if they didn’t stop the flow of illegal immigrants and fentanyl through the US border, President Claudia Sheinbaum agreed to reinforce security at the border with 10,000 soldiers. The deal worked well for Mexico too, as the US committed to provide training to the Mexican troops and step up operations to stop weapons from entering Mexico from the US.
With Colombia, Trump employed a similar strategy. When on Sunday 26 January, Colombia blocked two U.S. military planes carrying deportees from landing, President Trump responded by announcing emergency 25% tariffs on all imports from Colombia (which would be raised to 50% in a week), a travel ban for Colombian citizens and a revocation of visas for Colombian officials in the U.S. Colombian President Gustavo Petro responded by threatening a 25% retaliatory tariff increase on the US. However, the same day Petro agreed to the “unrestricted acceptance” of illegal immigrants from Colombia “without limitation or delay.”
On the other hand, the situation with Venezuela is still evolving. Trump recently axed Chevron’s license to operate in the country citing Venezuela’s lack of cooperation in taking its immigrants back (many of them are part of criminal gangs) and the lack of democratic reforms in the country.
What lies ahead for Zelensky
Had Zelensky carried out his homework and accepted the guidance given to him before the meeting, he would have undoubtedly exited the Oval Office with a viable agreement. While Europe is committing to increase its involvement in the conflict, a move that could cause a dangerous regional escalation, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte called for Zelensky to mend relations with the US. Rutte, who said he has spoken to Zelensky twice since the incident, called the public argument “unfortunate.” The secretary-general added that “we really have to give Trump credit,” for providing weapons to Ukraine during Trump’s first term in office, adding that the U.S. commands “respect” for their support.
